매년 20여개 전 세계 대학에서 the State of the Future 밀레니엄프로젝트의 미래보고서를 공부하고 연구하고 있다. 아래는 미래보고서에서 자료를 조사할때 방법론으로 SOFI를 사용하고, 이 소피라는 미래예측방법론에는 변수를 28가지 정도 이용하여 20년간의 자료를 넣어서 10년후의 미래를 예측하는 보고서있다.
각 분야에서 어떤 분야는 좋아지고있고 어떤 분야는 점점더 악화되고 있는데, 이를 한눈에 볼 수 있도록 자료를 도표 그래프 등으로 잘 정리해서 최고의 미래예측과정으로 상을 받은 인디아나대학교의 자료를 아래에서 볼 수 있다.
The State of the Future
Improving Global Foresight with 28 variables
Defining the State of the Future Index (SOFI)
The State of the Future Index (SOFI) indicates the socioeconomic state of the world ten years hence. The Millennium Project constructs the SOFI based on the judgments of its worldwide network of experts regarding the most-plausible end values for selected macroeconomic, social and environmental measurements. Each SOFI constituent has been recorded for twenty or more years, providing a long-lived track record on which to base projections. Policy makers can use the SOFI as an easy-to-understand tool to assess the consequences of different policy choices, as well as for illustrating the combined potential outcomes of policies.
Break Down Per Variable
Combining many variables into a single index number leads to a loss of detail, masking variations among sectors, regions, or nations. As a result, many people interested in tracking social or economic conditions prefer to review the variables they consider important in conjunction with the aggregated index. In support of that goal, the charts below present the normalized values for each SOFI constituent.
Total Constituent Value Changes (From 1991 to 2025)
SOFI Constituent Contribution Detail
All variables at a glance
Break Down Per Year
The State of the Future Index (2015 Edition)
Total Constituent Value Change (Selected Year v. Prior Year)
The Millennium Project
The Millennium Project connects futurists around the world to improve global foresight. It was founded in 1996 after a three-year feasibility study with the United Nations University, Smithsonian Institution, Futures Group International, and the American Council for the UNU. It is now an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgments from over 3,500 people since the beginning of the project, selected by its 56 Nodes around the world. The work is distilled in the annual "State of the Future", "Futures Research Methodology" series, special studies, and integrated into its Global Futures Intelligence System.
The SOFI consists of time-series data for twenty-eight socioeconomic variables, weighted as shown in the table below. The Millennium Project sources most of the data from the World Bank, but other sources include ilo.org, footprintnetwork.org and unesco.org.
The Millennium Project solicits the expert judgment of numerous futurists to create the SOFI. These experts choose the variables to include in the SOFI, how to weight each variable's contribution to the SOFI and then forecast best- and worst-case scenarios for each individual SOFI constituent. The projected values are then re-based to the current year and aggregated to create the State of the Future Index.
|Gross National Income||75.00|
|Wars and arm conflicts||71.08|
|Research & Development||68.21|
|High skilled employment||65.00|
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